Scenario library
18 scenarios generated from thesis v6 · 18 shown
Results
Logistics API at 61% concentration
Venture · Series A · Logistics infrastructure · Standard
A seed-stage logistics API is raising a $14M Series A at $70M post. Revenue is $1.1M ARR growing 18% month-on-month for five months. Two of three founders are first-time. One large customer is 61% of revenue.
Growth rate is exceptional; concentration resolves with scale.
One customer at 61% is a single point of failure at this price.
Take a $3M position and wait for the concentration to break.
Fund half now, half on second customer above 20% of revenue.
Your archive shows nine deals with above-50% customer concentration. You passed on six; of the three you did, the two that worked were both tranched on a diversification milestone. Your thesis explicitly prices concentration as structurable rather than disqualifying.
"We are not underwriting the customer, we are underwriting the founders' ability to sell a second one. Structure: $7M now, $7M on reaching <35% concentration within 9 months."